Germany, under the specter of the far-right
It would take a miracle to stop Angele Merkel from becoming Chancellor of Germany for the 4th consecutive term in the Federal Republic’s elections today, with her promise of welfare, security and stability amid the global turbulence of today’s world. Merkel, a disciple of Helmut Kohl has weathered the storm of the last decade and led Germany into calmer waters and taken the country out of the great recession.
Her win will be comfortable but the 34-36% share of the vote will not be enough for her to govern alone. Most likely she will look to Social Democrat Martin Schulz, but things may not be so easy.
On the horizon is the looming presence of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) which fueled by its successful anti-refugee policies has forced Merkel to adapt her own more lenient stance on the question. The AFD has managed to connect with a much wider electorate than previous extreme right groups and the level of acceptance as a mainstream party looks threatening in what was normally a comfortable style of consensus government. The polls give the party around 13% of the vote and in order to create a lasting presence in the Bundestag, the AFD will make sure that concensus is a one-sided affair. Other smaller parties may also play an important role in the outcome.