News

Shadow of uncertainty

Experts admit difficulty of making predictions in existing political context but rule out catastrophe; Spain’s debt crisis is a serious threat to Catalan GDP

More than 2,700 companies moved their headquarters out of Catalonia between October 1 and November 23 according to the registrars’ office. This is perhaps the most visible result of the of the possible effect of the political situation in Catalonia, and the impact the referendum has had on the economic development of the country. Other indicators such as rising unemployment and the decline in hotel overnight stays in October have helped fuel the message of fear that independence is sinking the economy, but in all certainty, does highlight the problem within the context as clearly, one of uncertainty.

According to UPF professor of economics and director of the ESCL School of International Trade , Xavier Stables, the problem is a demonstration of an inability to envisage a political solution of the conflict as is, and there is little to go on. “We are far from the Scottish situation,” says UB economist Miquel Puig.

The roller coaster of the past two months has caught many off guard, in part because of the violent reaction of the state, and the fact that most were not prepared for more than 2,000 businesses, some of them very important companies, moving their headquarters outside Catalonia. The psychological impact these movements have had are extreme. In terms of catastrophe however, those who cite Quebec’s loss of economic power ignore the fact that Slovenia managed to turn its economy around in just one year of independence.

However, there may be more problems elsewhere. What could create more uncertainty next year is the effect Spain’s debt crisis will have on Catalonia’s GDP.

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