A second chance

Some five and a half million Catalan voters (36.5m in all of Spain) are today called on to help break the party political deadlock resulting from the 20-D general election. Yet the polls say that the result of today's election is likely to produce a similar situation as that of a few months ago. However, most polls do not take into account the impact of the successful Brexit referendum nor the dirty-tricks scandal involving PP candidate Jorge Fernández Díaz and the head of Catalonia's Antifraud Office.

Nevertheless, the PP is expected to be the outright winner, with Ciutadans again in fourth place. What could be different from December is Podemos in alliance with IU overcoming PSOE. What's more, the centre-left coalition could also gain support from certain Catalan, Valencian and Basque parties. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias has already said that his party's support for a referendum in Catalonia, which PSOE rejects, is not an obstacle to forming a leftwing majority. If the results are tight and PSOE has the choice of making Iglesias prime minister or allowing PP to stay in government, socialist leader Pedro Sánchez will be under a lot of internal pressure to do the latter.

Whatever the outcome, one thing certain is that no one wants Mariano Rajoy to remain at the head of a future government. Ciutadans and PSOE have turned their backs on him. Also, the PP strategy of trying to weaken PSOE could backfire if Podemos manages to overtake the socialists.

In Catalonia, polls says the En Comú Podem coalition will be victorious again. Yet, there are signs that ERC could this time gain ground if more independence supporters turn out than is usual in a Spanish general election.