The risk of fire
As the effects of climate change make themselves felt, the panorama of forest fires in Catalonia is changing
Most people associate forest fires with the summer, but things are changing due to climate change. According to Marc Castellnou, chief analyst at GRAF (Grup d'Actuacions Forestals) of the Generalitat's fire service, in recent years winter fire prevention campaigns have carried over into the summer: “We have always had winter campaigns. We have to remember our Mediterranean climate features two main dry periods every year: a hot one in summer and a cold one in winter. However, that the winter campaign should overlap with summer is something new,” he says.
The statistics bear this out: winter fires in areas of the Pyrenees, the Ebre basin or Empordà have always happened, but only at an average of about once every five years. “For the past five years it has happened every winter,” says Castellnou, who adds that of the last eight large forest fires in the country, only four were in the summer. This rise in winter fires is clearly related to autumns that were drier than normal.
Less rainfall
The erratic behaviour of precipitation is also an issue of concern. As experts in climate change predict, rainfall is now concentrated in high intensity episodes. Last autumn, for example, apart from flooding on November 2, it hardly rained anywhere. “The high temperatures and warm weather causes stress for the vegetation; it seems as if we are nearing conditions seen in the south. We should not forget, like it or not, that Catalonia is a country that geographically faces south,” adds Castellnou.
The situation is becoming increasingly complex and everything will depend on rains in spring, because the rain –or its absence– can make all the difference. Castellnou recalls, for example, that 2012 began with large fires but as it went on to rain, even though only a little, the prevention campaign was in the end a success. “However, last year we did not have an especially dry autumn, but then it did not rain during the winter or spring and so the winter campaign ran into the summer one.”
Rethinking strategies
This situation could be repeated this year. “The climate change models are confirmed and that should make us rethink. Perhaps we should start thinking about a year-long campaign,” says Castellnou. For the fire service, work needs to be done to break the association of forest fires and summer. In fact, there are so many resources dedicated to summer and the public is far more aware, while in winter people do not think about the possibility of forest fires.
Nevertheless, there is one good thing, as Castellnou points out: Catalonia is a country with a great awareness, which can be seen in the summer, when the risk of fire is at its highest but often there is not a single fire: “We have to be capable of projecting this knowledge about the country in summer on to winter and the firefighting community has to run campaigns to make us prepared all year round,” he says.
Threat of wind
Moreover, in winter the risk is not the same every day, but varies according to the conditions, especially when it is windy or warm in the afternoons (cold nights mean vegetation is humid in the mornings). On these key days, we need to be cautious: if we know it is going to be windy, we should avoid activities that could increase the risk. Castellnou explains with an example: “Temperatures higher than eight degrees in the afternoon, like those in January, are not normal. We could have problems if, for example, a farmer lights a fire when wind is forecast. If the fire is not put out properly, it can relight and spread. The community has to understand this.”
This understanding has to be extended to every activity that can reducerisk. Yet, it is often hard to take on board when it seems paradoxical, such as the need to cut down trees to keep woodland healthy: “We have a country in which there is increasingly more woodland mass and everything that can manage it is more necessary than ever,” says Castellnou. Removing combustible material from woodland is one way of avoiding forest fires, which the fire service has noticed are increasingly quicker and more intense.
Finally, the geographical distribution of fires is changing. Until now, the traditional areas for forest fires were coastal and central areas, but if the present trend continues it could reach the pre-Pyrenees and Pyrenees, and areas like Garrotxa, Ripollès, Berguedà, Cerdanya, Alt Urgell or Pallars: “This is where the main woodland mass is located. A large forest fire in these areas would make things difficult, and the fact that these places that have not traditionally experienced large fires but are highly forested and have great biodiversity,” he concludes.
Map of anomalies
The annual climate bulletin from the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya says that 2015 was particularly warm, with an average rise in temperatures of 0.5 degrees. Yet, there were significant differences depending on the geographical area, with the highest temperature rises in the pre-Pyrenees, the eastern Pyrenees and the central and southern coastal areas, where average temperatures were two degrees higher. None of the weather stations that capture data detected signs of colder temperatures anywhere. As for rainfall, almost half of the country had precipitation less than 70% of the average for the 1961-1990 period, and in areas of Pla d'Urgell, Bages, Vallès Occidental and Baix Llobregat rainfall was below 50% of the average.